Mr. Deepak Agrawal

Senior Executive Vice President, Fund Management Debt

Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Limited

Mr. Deepak Agrawal is a Post Graduate in Commerce from Mumbai University, a qualified chartered account and a company secretary. Also cleared AIMR CFA Level I. His career has started from Kotak AMC when he joined the organisation in December 2002, where he was initially in Research, Dealing and then moved into Fund Management from November 2006.

Q1. India's 10-year benchmark government bond yield logged its biggest jump in six months in October. What are the factors that you think are affecting these yields right now?

Ans: Rise in US yield was the major driver for rise in domestic bond yield apart from higher inflation for the month of September 2024. The US yield were higher by ~ 65-70 bps in the month of Oct 2024. This was driver partially by strong jobs data for the month of Sept 2024 and partially due to market discounting Trump Presidency and Grand Old Party (GOP) clean sweep.

Q2. October saw the inclusion of Indian government bonds in the FTSE Emerging Markets Government Bond Index. Will this attract substantial foreign investment, boosting demand for Indian bonds?

Ans: After inclusion in JP Morgan Index and Bloomberg Emerging Market Bond Index, inclusion in FTSE Emerging Bond Index is also a positive sign. It increases the probability of Indian Bonds getting included in Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index over the course of next 2 year, which can draw in substantial flow in Indian Fixed Income Market. Inclusion in FTSE Emerging Market Bond index will draw 4 Billion $ flows in Indian Fixed Income Market starting Sept 2025. Even though the quantum is relatively smaller as comparison to JP Morgan Bond Index, nonetheless it’s a positive development for the Indian Fixed Income Market.

Q3. India's fiscal deficit for April-September stood at ₹4.75 trillion, 29.4% of the estimate for 2024-25. What could be the possible reasons?

Ans: The government's spending has been lower due to general elections conducted earlier this year. Total government expenditure during the period was 21.1 trillion rupees, or about 44% of the annual goal. For the first six months, the government's capital expenditure, or spending on building physical infrastructure, was 4.15 trillion rupees, or 37% of the annual target, as against 4.9 trillion rupees for the same period a year earlier. GOI is likely to miss the budgeted capital expenditure for FY 25 by ~ 1 lakh crs. Net tax receipts for the first six months of the current financial year were 12.65 trillion rupees, or 49% of the annual target, compared with 11.6 trillion rupees for the same period last year. GOI finances also got a boost from 2.11 lakh crs dividend from RBI. The fiscal deficit target for the full is likely to be lower than 4.9% budgeted, which is positive for fixed income market.

Q4. The annual inflation rate in India rose to 5.49% in September of 2024 from 3.65% in the previous month, well above market estimates of 5%. How do you anticipate this?

Ans: Inflation for the month of September rose above 5% and for the month of October it has come above 6%. However the core inflation has been in the band of 3.6-3.70%. Inflation for September and October is largely due to vegetable inflation (tomato) which has started to cool off in the month of Nov 2024. Inflation for Q3 FY 25 is likely to be above RBI forecast, however for Q4 FY 25 Inflation is likely to be in line with RBI forecast. Inflation in Q1 FY 26 is likely to be in the band of 4.25-4.5%.

Q5. With gold prices hitting record highs recently, should investors consider increasing their exposure to gold, or is it time to book profits?

Ans: We have been advising investors to have some allocation to gold based on the advice of their investment counsellor.
We continue to remain positive on gold, given that global central banks continue to buy gold (H1 CY 24, Central bank gold purchases is 5% higher than last year), Monetary easing by Fed and given the fiscal, tariff and immigration policies of the Trump Govt is likely to push inflation higher.

Q6. How can retail investors effectively incorporate bonds into their portfolios to ensure steady income and enhance diversification?

Ans: Investors should adhere to asset allocation based on the advice of their investment counsellor. Within the fixed income allocation, debt funds are likely to outperform other traditional fixed income options due to rate cuts expected over next 1 year. As an alternative to debt scheme, Investors can also consider our Kotak Income plus arbitrage fund of fund, which invest 40% of the assets in arbitrage scheme and 60% of its assets in debt scheme. This fund is tax efficient as compared to other debt scheme.

Mr. Harsha Upadhyaya

Chief Investment Officer - Equity

Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Limited

Harsha Upadhyaya heads the equity desk at KMAMC, and also directly manages funds such as Kotak Standard Multicap Fund, Kotak Equity Opportunities Fund and Kotak Tax Saver. Harsha has over two decades of experience spread across equity research and fund management. He has previously worked with DSP BlackRock, UTI Asset Management, Reliance Group and SG Asia Securities. Harsha completed his Bachelor of Engineering (Mechanical) from National Institute of Technology, Suratkal and holds a Post Graduate Diploma in Management (Finance) from Indian Institute of Management, Lucknow. He also holds Chartered Financial Analyst charter from the CFA Institute, US. Harsha follows various sports, and was a hockey player while at the university.

Q1. Trump won the US elections. How do you think it would impact the Indian markets? Which sectors in India could benefit out of this and which ones stand to lose the most because of this change in US president?

Ans: India has been cordial relations with both the parties in US, so our relationship with US doesn’t get impacted with Trump winning. Trump is pro business and wants spendings to move up by cutting taxes. This may lead to increased IT spendings by US corporates which is good for Indian IT. Their is also a possibility of dilution in BASEL III norms which may again spur growth spends and benefit Indian IT. Trump administration may take steps to end Russia- Ukraine war which may result in growth in the European region , which in turn is good for global markets.

Q2. Foreign investors pulled out a massive ₹94,000 crore from the Indian stock market in October, making it the worst-ever month in terms of outflows. What do you think would be the trigger for them to come back to India?

Ans: Foreign investors are pulling the money out from emerging markets to deploy in the US market. The hopes of tax rate cut to result in earnings upgrade is one big reason for this massive pullout from emerging market. Once the trade settles, investors shall realize the long term potential for Indian equity market and shall relook at their allocations again. The portfolio allocations at the start of the new year could be one such trigger point.

Q3. What is your outlook on Samvat 2081? Do you expect the Nifty to deliver double-digit returns in the upcoming year?

Ans: Samvat 2081 starts on the back of very strong returns in the market especially from COVID-19 lows. The earnings growth momentum for the next two years is still in double digits . So, it is not unreasonable to expect a similar returns from the market especially the large caps. Though, any cut in earnings for FY25/26 or a multiple derating can result in inferior returns . We are still hopeful of a low double digit return form the current levels post the recent correction in the market .

Q4. Major IT companies have reported their Q2 results, and the BSE IT index has risen over 20% in the past six months. Based on the management commentary, what trends or insights are you picking up regarding the sector's outlook?

Ans: IT companies have reported a decent pick up in deal flow especially in small and discretionary projects. Management is seeing a growth recovery in segments like BFSI, Hi-ech and retail. Companies are expecting the margins to stabilize and see an upward bias despite Q3 typically seeing high furloughs.

Q5. The festive season typically brings a surge in consumer spending. Have you observed any significant changes in consumer-driven sectors this year? Are there any particular sectors within India that have performed better or worse than expected?

Ans: The festive season has gone well as per various channel checks. The commentary from various companies is coming positive especially for the rural part of the economy. The urban centric consumption has taken a slight back seat which many are saying that shall pick up as government spending picks up pace. The impending wedding season is also giving hopes for a buoyancy returning to the consumption segment in coming months.  We have seen a sharp pickup in the festive season in segments like passenger vehicles , two wheelers and durables. Alcohol companies have also reported brisk sale . Apparel and jewelry companies also reported good sales growth.

Q6. Every bull market comes with its share of corrections, testing investors' patience along the way. What advice would you give to investors who are holding off on buying, despite having a shopping list ready? They were waiting for a dip, but now seem hesitant to take the plunge.

Ans: Over the history of Indian equity market, market has corrected by ten percent or more from its peak in almost all the calendar years. So, correction is a part of the overall market movement. One shall not get scared from corrections but may use them as an opportunity to build up portfolios for long term. In our view, if you have a five year or more time horizon in equity market, the best time to invest the money is NOW.

Mr. Neelesh Surana
Chief Investment Officer (CIO) - Equity, Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India) Pvt. Ltd.

Mr. Neelesh Surana is Chief Investment Officer at Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India) Private Limited. He joined Mirae Asset in 2008. In his capacity as CIO, Mr. Surana spearheads the research and fund management function. An engineering graduate with MBA in Finance, he has over 32 years of experience in equity research and portfolio management. Mr. Surana manages Mirae Asset ELSS Tax Saver Fund & Mirae Asset Large & Midcap Fund.

Q1. How do you anticipate October will differ from September? While September focused on flows and the Fed, do you think October will center around earnings and the festival season?

Ans: October is likely to shift focus from the flows and Fed decisions that dominated September to earnings reports and consumer demand during the festival season. As companies start releasing their quarterly results, markets may be influenced by performance metrics and guidance for the upcoming quarters. However, there are many other ongoing global and domestic nuances that could impact markets, which are always difficult to predict in the short term.

Q2. Given the substantial growth in F&O volumes and the increasing participation of retail investors, do you believe that the recent regulatory measures introduced by SEBI will be effective in curbing retail participation in the derivatives market?

Ans: The recent regulatory measures by SEBI aim to promote responsible trading in the derivatives market. The F&O volumes in India in recent periods have increased substantially, and to protect overall investor interests, it has implemented restrictions and changes around the F&O market. The effectiveness of these regulations, which are yet to be implemented, will depend on how they are perceived by investors and whether they adapt their strategies accordingly.

Q3. With the US reducing rates by 50 basis points and China implementing stimulus measures to support its economy, will India continue to stand out as a bright spot, and for how long?

Ans: India's economic fundamentals and high growth potential, owing to favorable demographics and improving digital and physical infrastructure, position it as a bright spot. 

The factors related to China's strong monetary and fiscal stimulus are aimed at addressing its economic challenges. In the near term, we have seen some allocation shifting to Chinese markets, which was funded by selling India. However, for now, it seems tactical as the Chinese market is extremely cheap compared to India, and thus the sustainability of this trend depends on various factors. Broadly, we believe India will remain strong amid various global economic uncertainties, and over time, investment flows should remain robust.

Q4. Is the IPO market in 2024 different from the speculative frenzy of 2021? Do you believe that the current focus on profitability is more sustainable and indicative of a healthier market?

Ans: The CY24 YTD IPO has totaled INR 73.5k crore, which is less than the INR 1.3 lakh crore IPOs in CY2021. The phrase "This time is different" is often cited as one of the most dangerous in investing because it can lead to complacency and overconfidence. That said, on some parameters, the IPO market in 2024 appears to be more grounded compared to the speculative frenzy of 2021. The current emphasis on profitability and sustainable business models suggests a more cautious and mature approach from both companies and investors. That said, there are clearly pockets of excess, such as froth in SME markets or certain sectors driven by narratives of strong growth.

Q5. Which sectors or areas do you identify as having low risk and greater earnings stability? Are there any sectors you would recommend investors to avoid at this time, as they may have already peaked?

Ans: Sectors such as financials, utilities, consumer goods, and healthcare often exhibit greater earnings stability due to consistent demand for their products and services. We are cautious about sectors where PE multiples have increased disproportionately compared to growth, such as those in capital goods, defense, and industrials.

Q6. How should retail investors react to the heightened volatility driven by macroeconomic and regulatory factors? What strategies can they adopt for both long as well as short term horizons?

Ans: In times of heightened volatility, retail investors should consider adopting a balanced approach regarding asset allocation and scheme selection. Focusing on quality stocks with strong fundamentals and a long-term horizon is advisable. SIPs, along with proper asset allocation and expectations of moderate returns, are key now. 

It’s important for investors to reduce their return expectations and not get carried away by the abnormally strong returns achieved in the last two years.